We are pleased to present the updated consumption forecast for frozen potatoes from 2024 to 2028. This refined outlook captures the latest trends, growth projections, and key differences from the initial forecast, offering a clearer perspective on where growth opportunities lie. Below, we outline the main developments by total consumption, regional developments and channel forecasts.
Global consumption is expected to reach 20.4 million tons in 2028
In the updated forecast, demand is expected to reach 17.9 million tonnes in 2024, down slightly from the initially anticipated 18.2 million tonnes. This adjustment brings the projected growth rate between 2023 and 2024 to 2.4%, a moderation from the earlier forecast of 4.0%. While frozen potato consumption continues to grow, it is progressing at a slower rate than originally anticipated.
Key factors behind this adjustment include:
- Persistently high potato prices, which have kept potato products more expensive than alternatives that have since returned to normalized pricing.
- A slowdown in global QSR chain growth, driven by continuous price increases and an inflationary environment that is shifting consumer preferences.
Despite these challenges, demand for frozen potato products remains strong. Between 2024 and 2028, the annual growth rate is expected to stay 3.3%, driven largely by rising per capita consumption in underdeveloped markets and a growing global population. By 2028, global consumption is anticipated to reach 20.4 million tonnes, which is 0.3 million tonnes less than the initial projection.
Foodservice channel leads in growth with a 4.2% CAGR from 2023 to 2028
The updated forecast shows growth across all channels from 2023 to 2024, with varying rates by segment. Foodservice remains the largest channel, with demand expected to increase by 3.5% from 2023, though slightly below initial projections. Looking forward, foodservice is projected to achieve the highest CAGR among channels at 4.2% through 2028.
Retail sales are expected to grow modestly, with a slight increase of 0.1% in 2024, though 2.3% lower than previously forecasted. Retail demand is anticipated to continue its gradual rise, with a CAGR of 0.7% through 2028.
In the QSR segment, demand is forecasted to grow by 1.7% in 2024, although slightly under the original projection. Regional differences are notable:
- In the Middle East, QSR demand is expected to decline by around 9.0% from 2023 due to ongoing boycotts, though increased foodservice demand indicates sustained interest in frozen potato products.
- In Latin America, major QSR chains are seeing strong volume growth driven by rising restaurant traffic. For instance, Arcos Dorados, McDonald’s master franchisee in Latin America, reported a 14th consecutive month of increased guest counts in its Q3 2024 earnings.
The QSR segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.1% through 2028. Although channel developments vary by country, with shifting volumes between channels, the overall market continues to expand, indicating sustained appetite for frozen potato products.
Growth varies across regions, with Latin America projected to have the highest growth rate.
The updated forecast for frozen potato consumption from 2023 to 2028 shows varying growth patterns across regions, with strong demand in emerging markets and steady growth in more mature markets.
High-Growth Regions
Emerging markets in Latin America, Asia, and the Middle East are anticipated to lead significant growth in frozen potato consumption:
- Latin America: Demand is expected to grow by 6.5% in 2024 compared to 2023, with a strong CAGR of 6.4% projected through 2028. Volumes are rapidly increasing across all channels.
- Asia: Robust growth is anticipated, with demand increasing by 4.1% in 2024 and a CAGR of 5.4% extending to 2028.
- Middle East: Although QSR volumes have declined significantly, overall demand is projected to rise by 4.3% in 2024, reflecting changing consumer preferences. The region’s growth rate is forecasted at a CAGR of 4.8%, slightly lower than initially expected.
Mature markets in North America, Europe, and Oceania are expected to experience moderate growth, with Africa also showing steady demand, primarily driven by the foodservice segment:
- North America: Demand is projected to grow by 1.8% in 2024, aligning with initial expectations, with a CAGR of 2.1% through 2028.
- Europe: Demand is expected to increase by 1.2% in 2024, slightly lower than initially forecasted due to slower growth or slight declines in larger markets. Nevertheless, Europe is projected to grow at a steady annual rate of 2.2% through 2028.
- Oceania: Demand growth is projected at 1.3% in 2024, with a CAGR of 2.3% extending through 2028.
- Africa: Demand is anticipated to decline by 1.1% in 2024, likely due to high potato costs leading consumers to opt for alternatives. However, the market is expected to recover, achieving a CAGR of 3.9% through 2028.
In conclusion, market growth is slightly lower than initially anticipated. The main factors behind this are geopolitical conditions and high inflation, which have led to shifts in consumer preferences. Despite these challenges, the market is still expected to demonstrate steady growth moving forward.
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