Market Monitoring Frozen Potato Products: Insights August 2023

Mathieu Geuskens
Published on
November 21, 2023

In this monthly Frozen Potato Products update, our analysts will share valuable insights about the Frozen Potato Products industry. This month: trade data shows that global trade volume was down 4.9% in August 2023 compared to 2022, and prices were up 20.3%.

Market monitoring of frozen potato products

Market monitoring helps agri food companies to objectively evaluate their current position within the market and the development of that position. Furthermore, it helps to spot new growth opportunities and whether the market is saturated.

For the A-INSIGHTS Market Monitor, we analyze the global trade in frozen potato products on a monthly basis. Derived from local customs agencies and statistics offices, the data gives us insight into monthly trade volumes and prices for all major importers and exporters. Combined with our sector expertise, we can provide you with an up-to-date view of the developments in the global frozen potato market.

Trade volumes continue to trend below last year as prices are flattening out

In August 2023, a total of 754.9 thousand tonnes of frozen potato products was traded internationally, down 4.9% compared to August 2022. With crops running out in Europe, most export decline is found in key exporters such as Belgium, France, and Germany. The volume decline is in line with past months, as producers were preparing for the new crop that was coming up from September onwards.  

Prices continue to trend well above previous year’s level, but price increases have started to lap the steep upward development seen in the second half of 2022. At an average global price of €1.31/KG, August price levels are on par with the rolling three month average and only €4ct/KG above the 12-month average price.

Figure 1. Global frozen potato trade volume in th. tonnes and price in €/kg for theperiod ending August 2023, year-over-year comparison

Looking ahead, volume recovery is to be expected as crops in key production regions in North America and Europe are expected to be in line with multi-year averages. However, current weather conditions in Europe may pressure raw material supply in the second part of the harvest, with rain as the key complicating factor. This might spur global shortages seen in 2022, with price developments to match.

EU producers lacked raw material, recovery expected in coming months

The bulk of year-over-year export decline is found in Europe, with Belgium exporting 15.8 thousand tonnes less than in August 2023. In doing so, the country loses 0.7%-points of share in global frozen potato trade, although it remains the largest exporter worldwide. Production in Europe has picked up again in the second half of September and October, meaning that volume recovery is to be expected in the coming months.

Figure 2.Top 5 exporters, August volume in th. tonnes and price in €/kg, 2023 vs 2022

Canada is able to keep exports in line with last year, although the year-over-year price increase is substantially lower than that of European exporters. Due to this, Canada’s export prices are trending below that of i.e. Belgium, contrary to historic trends.

US imports remain strong, Brazil pivots to local production

Imports from the US remain strong and increase to 111.1 thousand tonnes, up 5 thousand tonnes compared to August 2022. With the positive crop outlook for key production regions in the US, demand for import might subside in coming months, where it will be interesting to see if European importers will be able to maintain the volume share built up in 2022 and 2021. Furthermore, the declining import trend of Japan continues in August, in line with the continued weak Yen.

An interesting case to highlight is that of Brazil, which has significantly reduced imports in the past periods. In the past 12 months, Brazil’s imports have dropped from 381 thousand tonnes to 288 thousand tonnes, highlighting the effect of increased domestic production on the growing market’s import needs. Key drivers for local production increase are expanded capacity in the Perdizes plant of market leader Bem Brasil and McCain’s new plant in Araxa, both operational as of 2022.

Figure 3. Top 5 importers, August volume in th. tonnes and price in €/kg, 2023 vs 2022

Shipment Intelligence: spotting new entrants based on data

In the past month, we’ve launched our new and improved Shipment Intelligence feature. This allows users to dive deeper into trade flows, matching volumes to exporters and importers. Aside from the insight in competitor movements and key accounts in growing markets, the feature also provides a data-driven insight in new entrants in the frozen potato market. Which of the exporters from Turkey, India, China and Egypt below do you recognize, and which are new? Find out more in the coming weeks!

Figure 4. Top 25 exporters from Turkey, India, China and Egypt yearly volume in th. tonnes

Based on bill of lading data for 25+ countries and our proprietary data cleaning process, Shipment Intelligence provides a detailed insight in companies importing and supplying frozen potato products in over 75 countries. Key features include:

  • Cleaned data by our own unique cleaning process that allow you to extract the insights you seek
  • Product split to Frozen Fries Frozen Potato Specialties and other
  • Strongly improved visualizations to give insight into supplier relations and price information
  • Covering up to 75 countries - 22% of total global trade volume and 42.5% of trade volume in covered countries
  • Curious how A-INSIGHTS can help you to incorporate objective insights into your decision-making processes and how our Market Monitor will empower your perspective? Schedule a call.

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