In this monthly Frozen Potato Products update, our analysts will share valuable insights about the Frozen Potato Products industry. This month: trade data shows that global trade volume was down 6.7% in September 2023 compared to 2022, and prices were up 18.7%.
Market monitoring of frozen potato products
Market monitoring helps agri food companies to objectively evaluate their current position within the market and the development of that position. Furthermore, it helps to spot new growth opportunities and whether the market is saturated.
For the A-INSIGHTS Market Monitor, we analyze the global trade in frozen potato products on a monthly basis. Derived from local customs agencies and statistics offices, the data gives us insight into monthly trade volumes and prices for all major importers and exporters. Combined with our sector expertise, we can provide you with an up-to-date view of the developments in the global frozen potato market.
Trade volumes remain below 2022 level but show stabilization
In September 2023, 756 thousand tonnes of frozen potato products were traded globally, down 6.7% compared to September 2022 but stable compared to August 2023. Crop limitations in Europe are clearly driving export decline, with key exporters Belgium and the Netherlands driving most of the global volume loss.
Prices remain above prior year’s level, but the increase is leveling out as price increases in the second half of 2022 are being lapped. At €1.33/KG, prices are up 2ct/KG compared to August and up 11ct/KG compared to September 2023. Interestingly, prices are slightly above both 3-month and 12-month rolling averages, signaling strong underlying demand.
Looking ahead, volume recovery is to be expected as crops in key production regions in North America and Europe are expected to be in line with multi-year averages. However, current weather conditions in Europe hampered raw material supply in the past months, with rain as the key complicating factor.
European producers struggle with raw material availability
The bulk of year-over-year export decline is found in Europe, as Belgium and the Netherlands exported 47 thousand tonnes less than in September 2023. With production in the Netherlands trending above prior year’s levels in October and November, volume recovery is expected. Contrary to Europe, North American producers have ramped up exports as the new crop is more than sufficient to meet raw material demand. In doing so, North America recovers part of the international trade volume share lost to Europe in prior years.
Imports
US imports remained strong in September, with the largest market accounting for 15% of the global import volume. This is a continued trend, as domestic production in the US is no longer able to meet growing demand. However, the price level of US import is closer to the global average then before, signaling price sensitivity in consumer demand.
Outside of the top 5 importers, strong growth is found in Mexico and Saudi Arabia, with both countries increasing imports by over 15% compared to September 2023. This is in line with strong relative growth in markets outside of Europe and North America, where domestic production is limited or in the early stages of development.
Shipment Intelligence: spotting new entrants based on data
We’ve recently launched our new and improved Shipment Intelligence feature. This allows users to dive deeper into trade flows, matching volumes to exporters and importers. Aside from the insight in competitor movements and key accounts in growing markets, the feature also provides a data-driven insight in new entrants in the frozen potato market.
Last month, we highlighted a number of exporters that have shown strong growth in the past year. Our analysts have researched the companies that were not yet known to us, investigating production capabilities. In doing so, we found 9 producers that we added to our production capacity database, with a combined production capacity of 133 thousand tonnes.
Based on bill of lading data for 25+ countries and our proprietary data cleaning process, Shipment Intelligence provides a detailed insight in companies importing and supplying frozen potato products in over 75 countries. Key features include:
• Cleaned data by our own unique cleaning process that allow you to extract the insights you seek
• Product split to Frozen Fries Frozen Potato Specialties and other
• Strongly improved visualizations to give insight into supplier relations and price information
• Covering up to 75 countries - 22% of total global trade volume and 42.5% of trade volume in covered countries
Curious how A-INSIGHTS can help you to incorporate objective insights into your decision-making processes and how our Market Monitor will empower your perspective? Schedule a call.
