Market Monitoring Frozen Potato Products: March 2024

Mathieu Geuskens
Published on
June 18, 2024

In this monthly Frozen Potato Products update, our analysts will share valuable insights about the Frozen Potato Products industry. This month: trade data shows that global trade volume was down 3.8% in March 2024 compared to 2023, and prices were up 4.1%.

Market monitoring of frozen potato products

Market monitoring helps agrifood companies to objectively evaluate their current position within the market and the development of that position. Furthermore, it helps to spot new growth opportunities and whether the market is saturated.

For the A-INSIGHTS Market Monitor, we analyze the global trade in frozen potato products on a monthly basis. Derived from local customs agencies and statistics offices, the data gives us insight into monthly trade volumes and prices for all major importers and exporters. Combined with our sector expertise, we can provide you with an up-to-date view of the developments in the global frozen potato market.

Trade level at the highest level since June ’23 and prices are stabilizing

In March 2024, the traded volume of frozen potato products reached 802.5 thousand tonnes, marking the highest monthly trade level since June 2023. Although this represents a decrease of 3.8% compared to March last year, it signifies a notable recovery. Compared to February 2024, trade volume increased by 46.4 thousand tonnes, or 6.1%, indicating a positive trend in the market despite the year-over-year decline.

The average global trade price for March 2024 was €1.34/kg, representing a 4.1% increase compared to March 2023. Despite this year-over-year increase, the most significant price growth occurred in the past, with global trade prices stabilizing since July 2023 between €1.30 and €1.35/kg. Belgium maintains a cost advantage relative to the US, with the trade price in March 2024 at €1.26/kg in Belgium compared to €1.57/kg in the US. Notably, prices in the US are more volatile, adding another layer of complexity to the market dynamics.

Figure 1. Global frozen potato trade volume in th. tonnes and price in €/kg for the periods ending March 2024, year-over-year comparison

Figure 2. Monthly global trade price in €/kg from Feb ’22 – Mar ‘24

Canadian exports reach all-time high

In March 2024, Canadian exports of frozen potato products reached an all-time high of 133.3 thousand tonnes, up 2.5% compared to February 2024. The previous high was in March 2022, when Canadian exports reached 132.2 thousand tonnes. US exports also increased to 84.5 thousand tonnes, a rise of 1.3%, marking the highest level since July 2022.

As of April 1st, 2024, Canada's stocks for processing potatoes are 24% higher compared to the previous year, despite higher exporting levels at the beginning of 2024 compared to 2023. Regional differences are however notable: stocks in the Maritimes (Western Canada) are 20.8% lower, while in the prairies, stocks are 67.9% higher compared to the same period last year. In April 2024, exports declined to 121.9 thousand tonnes, however, because of the high stock level, it is expected that Canada can maintain high production levels and sustain its exports.

Figure 3. Top 5 exporters March volume in th. tonnes and price in €/kg, 2024 vs 2023

Decline in Dutch potato volumes and future supply concerns

In March 2024, potato volumes in the Netherlands decreased to 140.4 thousand tonnes, down 3.6% compared to February 2024. Since December 2023, monthly production of processed potatoes has remained lower compared to the same period last year. In April 2024, production volumes further declined by 3.2% compared to March 2024, reaching 149.0 thousand tonnes. This decline is even more pronounced when compared to April 2023, with a 7.4% drop. Recent adverse weather conditions in the Netherlands, including excessive rain, have significantly increased the risk of a moldy potato harvest. This will likely impact the availability of raw materials and consequently affect next year's exports. Furthermore, Belgium's free market trade price saw a substantial increase during May and June, indicating a scarcity of raw materials in the region and impacting future trade prices.

Curious how A-INSIGHTS can help you to incorporate objective insights into your decision-making processes and how our Market Monitor will empower your perspective? Schedule a call.

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