Market Monitoring Dairy Industry: Insights February 2022

Mathieu Geuskens
Published on
May 16, 2022

In this monthly dairy industry update, our analysts will share valuable insights about the dairy industry. This month: the trade volume of Dutch cheeses (Gouda, Maasdam, Edam) is down 9.7% in February 2022 compared to February 2021, prices are up 26.3%.

Market Monitoring of the dairy industry

Market monitoring helps agri-food companies objectively evaluate their current position within the market and the development of that position. Furthermore, it helps to spot new growth opportunities and whether the market is saturated.

For the A-INSIGHTS MarketMonitor, we analyze the global trade in dairy products on a monthly basis. Derived from local customs agencies and statistics offices, the data gives us insight into monthly trade volumes and prices for all major importers and exporters. Combined with our sector expertise, we can provide you with an up-to-date view of the developments in the global dairy market. 

Reduced milk supply drives continued volume decline and price increase  

The reduced milk supply in major European dairy producers Germany, the Netherlands, and France drives continued volume pressure and price increases. February volumes are down 9.7% compared to February 2022, prices increased by 26.3% in the same period. Year-to-date volumes declined by 9.3% whilst prices are up 24.4%. Volume decline is most profound for Gouda cheese (-13.6% YTD), whilst Edam (-3.4%) and Maasdam (-0.4%) are relatively comparable to previous years' volumes. In terms of trade prices, Edam and Gouda increase by 34.3% and 25.4% YTD respectively, whilst the price for Maasdam increases substantially less by 4.8%. 

YTD February
Figure 1. Total export Dutch cheeses (Gouda, Edam, Maasdam) year-to-date until February, tonnes and €/kg

Germany curbs volume decline whilst bridging the gap with average export price for the Netherlands

At 14.8%, volume decline is most profound for the Netherlands. In a pressured market, importers seem to move towards lower-priced products from Germany, which curbs volume decline to 6.3% in February. This drives a steeper price increase for exports from Germany (+39.3%) compared to the Netherlands (+19.5%), due to which the average export price for Germany is bridging the gap with the average export price for the Netherlands. As one of few dairy producers in the EU that increase raw milk production in the first quarter of 2022, Poland manages to increase exports by 17.2% at an average €4.56/kg (+32.2%).

Exporters February
Figure 2. Top 5 exporters Dutch cheeses (Gouda, Edam, Maasdam) February, tonnes and €/kg

German import prices top €5.00/kg for the first time, whilst volumes decrease for most major importers

Imports decrease for most major importers of Dutch cheeses, with notable exceptions for Belgium (+3.0%) and Spain (+6.8%). The steepest import decline is found in Japan (-46.2%), which records the lowest monthly import volume in the last 6 years. In terms of absolute volumes, Germany incurs the largest import decline with -2,752 tonnes (-21.5%), but as the export decline is relatively comparable (2,972 tonnes) the country's trade balance remains stable. Import prices do increase steeply for Germany (+18.0%), topping €5.00/kg for the first time in the past 6 years. With milk prices in Europe continuing to reach record levels in the past months, no price decreases are expected in the coming months. 

Importers February
Figure 3. Top 10 importers Dutch cheeses (Gouda, Edam, Maasdam) February, tonnes and €/kg

Curious how A-INSIGHTS can help you to incorporate objective insights into your decision-making processes and how our Performance Monitor will empower your perspective? Schedule a call.

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